Go check out Anil's "State of the Blogs Address"

Liza Sabater

Anil Dash: The Blog Cycle

First, it's important to note that there is no "blogosphere". There are hundreds of blogospheres. Each sub-community of weblogs has its own social norms, its own traditions and its own thought leaders. And as each community has formed and evolved, you can see it go through a few common steps as it evolves as a medium.

Adding my $0.02 : This 'cycle' could be easily applied to any online community that has been up long enough for some people to take it for granted that it will always be there but for other to discover it as the new best thing.

I've seen this happen with Net Art - 10 years ago. I have also seen this happen with different national and local homeschooling and unschooling communities as well.

The thing is Anil, blogs ARE the new thing. I had to wait 8 years to find the technology I needed to publish online the way I wanted. Blogs still have that new fake leather interior with PVP carpet smell. Give it another 5 years to really look back in skepticism.